[Grovenet] America's Trillion-Dollar Baby

[David Morelli]

On Jan 25, 2007, at 11:02 AM, Ron D'Eau Claire wrote:
> ...
> The problem reminds me of a bunch of people trying to rappel down a  
> cliff face with only a makeshift rope. One says to the other, "I  
> think this rope is strong enough. Let's tie it off here, you hook  
> on and start down and we'll see."
>
> His friend says, "Wait a minute! Can't we test the rope first to  
> see if it's strong enough before I'm hanging 1000 feet above the  
> bottom of this cliff?"
>
> I'm suggesting we test the rope first rather than hoping it's  
> strong enough. I think that if we do that, even an approximation,  
> we'll have a lot more people willing to risk the trip down off the  
> cliff.
>
> Ron D'Eau Claire
>

I don't want the rope to fail with people on it either.  In this  
parable we differ because you want to check to see if the rope is  
"strong enough".  Even if it is true, I don't want to hear, "it isn't  
strong enough because our heaviest person is 200 pounds and the rope  
won't hold 200 pounds".

I am a technician, I want to know how many pounds it will hold and I  
want to know its length, because that tells me something useful.

Given the length and strength of the rope we can tailor it to the  
situation.  If the rope only holds 120 pounds and is 100 feet long,  
we can safely lower someone less than 120 pounds to a ledge within  
100 feet of the top.  Or we can double the rope and lower 240 pounds  
to a ledge 50 feet from the top.  Or, we can triple the rope and  
lower 360 pounds to a ledge 33 feet from the top.   When we know the  
limits of the rope we can look to see if there are ledges on the  
cliff at the necessary places.  We don't have to leave the "big  
fella" behind because the rope won't hold him.

We have sun, tide, and ground heat that will last for thousands of  
centuries.  They support wind, rivers and plants as potentially  
sustainable energy sources.  We have coal, oil and nuclear as limited  
stockpiles of dense energy.

The question of "how much do we need?"  can miss the whole solution.   
During a day in the winter, parts of the Sahara Desert can vary  
between 32F and 100F.  So how much energy is needed to heat at night,  
and how much energy is needed to cool during the day?  How many  
nuclear power plants or solar panels are needed to provide the  
electricity to run the air conditioning and space heaters like our  
buildings here?   How much wood or oil is needed to provide the heat  
for cooking?  How much electricity is needed for lighting?  Wrong  
questions.

What energy is available?  A flat, black steel plate will maintain  
170F to 250F all day.  The average winter temperature is 66F if you  
have enough thermal mass.  The sun shines 11 to 13 hours every day.   
They have plenty of available energy, their biggest energy issue may  
be based on their requirement to pump water or for transportation.

Solutions appropriate to the local climate, and consumption based  
upon sustained supply of energy.

David