[Grovenet] America's Trillion-Dollar Baby

[David Morelli]

On Jan 27, 2007, at 10:12 AM, Steven wrote:

> Here is an interesting chart.
> http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0905152.html
> It shows that there were about 10 million unoccupied homes in the  
> US in
> 2000. I would expect that number to have grown with the construction
> over the last 7 years. With that number, it could easily be that we  
> have
> current room for 30 million new residents. If the number were to have
> gone up over the years to 15 million, that would be 45 million new
> residents. If growth comes from immigrations and these immigrants have
> larger families then the number could be even larger.
> I could imagine that if your projection were accurate, we would not  
> need
> to expand our growth boundaries at all.
> This could start to turn real estate prices. 100 years from now, empty
> homes could be close to 30% of total homes.
> Ron might know what would happen to real estate.


Interesting statistic.

It can be interpreted in a variety of ways I suppose.  The chart  
references a national 9% vacancy rate in housing.  If the average  
home sold every four years and was vacant for four months that would  
be a 9% vacancy rate without any other cause.  I expect that houses  
don't stand empty for that period when they sell, so it must be other  
factors as well.

David